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Bitcoin: A Healthy Correction or a Trend Reversal?

July 17, 2019
“Know what you own, and know why you own it”
― Peter Lynch

5-Day Change

  • Bitcoin: $7,898
  • Ethereum: $248.40
  • S&P 500: $2,793.23
  • Dow Jones: $25,271.67

Top Movers

Bitcoin lost 8.20% after breaking the $9,000 resistance on Thursday 
• BitcoinSV gained 87.29% for the last week as hype over Wright’s copyright claim continues
 Litecoin loses 11.31% on last week’s trading as it experiences a crypto-wide retracement
• Luckin Coffee, a Chinese coffee franchise, gains 22.48% on the previous week as two hedge funds reveal large stakes
KalVista Pharmaceuticals, an American pharma company, lost 21.02% after last week’s trading, as it presented results of a new clinical trial in Lisbon

Top trading ideas:

Breaking $9,000 Is Nice, But This Uncertainty isn’t Helping

$9,000 is a nice round number for Bitcoin…but despite the correction back to $8,000, a big question remains: is this the end of the 2019 bull run? Well, not exactly. There’s a good reason to consider this latest move as just a healthy retracement. After all, the Bitcoin halving is only a year away, and the activity on the network is in fact increasing, and the fundamentals, in terms of daily confirmed transactions and unique addresses, are still improving.
So are we going up or down? As always, it’s hard to predict Bitcoin’s movement, but we may be in for a short-term correction, as the market shows signs of buyer exhaustion. This could mean that we’ll see Bitcoin’s price fall further before the bulls perk back up to take advantage of relatively cheaper bitcoins.
What could push it up? Besides the general hype of a bull run, there’s an increasing buzz about using Bitcoins as a hedge against the US-China trade war. Increased ‘big money’ activity in the market can also be a spark for a bull rally.
What could push it down? Whales, or people who own a lot of Bitcoin - 26% of circulating supply is now held by addresses that have 1000 to 10,000 BTC - have often been accused of causing massive moves on the market. One source suggests that a 25,000 BTC move could have affected the crash on Monday.
Wut We Think: It’s too early to call for the end of the bull run just yet. But it may be a good time to buy cheap bitcoins, as evidenced by our technical analysisAnother rally might push the price back up to $9,000. And from there, $11,500 is still on the menu.

Breaking Facebook Libra Forges Ahead With Talks At National Banks Helping

Facebook’s stablecoin is chugging on full steam ahead...and it could represent $19 billion dollars in revenue by 2021. That represents a very solid chunk of change - and it’s no surprise that Facebook has been in talks with the US Commodity and Futures Trading Commission, as well as the Bank of England for a 2020 launch.
Libracoin? Facecoin? Actually, Globalcoin is what the Facebook team is calling their crypto stablecoin project internally, and they plan to test it by the end of the year.

So what is it, exactly? It seems that Facebook is looking to take advantage of its network to roll out a cross-border payment system, and has been in talks with Visa, Mastercard, Western Union, and other firms to set that up.

19 billion in revenue? It’s a guess, but one that seems backed up by the data, assuming that Facebook successfully leverages its network power, especially in countries with weak or untrustworthy local banking systems.
Wut We Think: Facebook’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, has been under fire recently as shareholders held a symbolic vote to oust him as CEO, as well as rumors of antitrust investigations hitting the tech sector as a whole. (Symbolic because Facebook’s voting structure is set up in such a way that Zuckerberg controls 60% of voting power in the company.) FB stock is down nearly 16% this month, but as Facebook gears up to launch Globalcoin, it may signal a drastic reversal of fortunes for the company.

Apple Positions Itself as a Privacy Leader But China Won’t Go Away

It’s no surprise that Apple is being hit hard by the trade war...but things may be turning around after it’s a presentation during this years Worldwide Developers Conference. AAPL is down 14% over this month, but it’s gained 3.21% by mid-day trading today, after unveiling four major new innovations: Apple Single Sign In, a new Mac Pro, Dark Mode for iPhones, and the end of iTunes.
Woah, what’s this about iTunes? Listen, we all fell deeply in love when iTunes launched in 2003 and made buying music easy. But Apple’s decided on a different route, chopping up iTunes into three separate apps: Music, Podcasts, and TV.

China’s not responsible for this, right? For all the different things the trade war is responsible for, the end of iTunes isn’t it. But China represents 18% of Apple’s sales and is its third largest market, so a boycott of Apple products in China could represent a deadly blow. 

How does privacy help? It doesn’t exactly mitigate the trade war, but Apple’s single sign-on (like Google and Facebook), and updated tracking permissions set it aside from its FAANG rivals, showing that Apple isn’t just paying lip service to privacy - it’s committing.
Wut We Think: While it’s a bit too early to say that WWDC is a resounding success, AAPL has been up today, and most of its announcements have been met positively. However, no matter how popular its new privacy features, dark mode, or new Mac Pro turns out to be, the trade war carries a hefty risk for the company - especially if the Chinese government bans iPhone sales and halts rare earth shipments.  


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